I know it's here somewhere....

Vembu Systems recently announced a new version of their StoreGrid software which will backup your files to other computers on the network using their spare disk capacity.
I had kind of abandoned this idea several years ago as, in my opinion at the time, the major use of it may have been questioned as unethical.

It is probably an idea whose time has come. StoreGrid is fairly basic and only allows discovery by multicast, followed by scheduling of backups to the peer machine using encryption and compression.
Given the amount of excess disk capacity out there, it's a great way to empower users in a small organisation to back up important files. How many times have you heard the excuse that some file or other was inadvertently deleted, corrupted or the laptop crashed?
What StoreGrid doesn't do, that I had envisioned back in '98, is the following:
- Use software RAID to spread the files over multiple machines redundantly
- Produce a very small 'backup key file' (password protected) with the locations and decryption key necessary to put the file(s) back together again (this would mean you could store your files on the net, but they would only be accessible in their entirety to the person with the key file. It's a bit 'James Bond', imagine you want to protect some files you have created/found on a public computer (internet cafe or corporate server); just pass them to the software, it will encrypt and split the files into small pieces and save them to multiple peers. It then provides a key file which you save to your USB flash disk and you can delete the backed-up files on the public computer. Saving may also be faster depending on the internet connection speed (as you are saving in parallel)
- Have a central server that tracks the online status of available peers and their reputation (for reliability and availability).

I was in Sweden at the time and had recently had my laptop stolen, with several highly sensitive product roadmap documents on it. It was a solution to that problem, but it also provides a means for illegal material to be completely hidden from the eyes of the authorities. Nowadays I am more cynical about the need for the authorities to see everything that exists in electronic form.

There are similar systems to Vembu out there, but the P2P aspect of backup is the interesting part. If Vembu add the security angle they might get more attention.

Uma Thurman is a hot spot!

Uma Thurman's parents showed great foresight in naming their kid, I mean, who was to know that UMA was going to have such an impact on the communications industry?
Now you can have UMA in your pocket, thanks to some very rapid engineering by LG (the standard only came out a year ago).
UMA lets you have access on WiFi, but then transfers seamlessly to GSM when you move out of range (that's the kind of girl she is!)
Does UMA work? Well, time will tell, but I don't think it matters terribly much. She looks good!
David Mould's post on IP devices and WiFi access prompted me to summarise some comments I have been leaving around the place, particularly on Communities Dominate Brands and Telepocalypse.

The effect of UMA will be either a confrontation between the Mobile Operators and the handset manufacturers, OR the Mobile Operators will be forced to get into the hotspot business.
UMA is MO's best friend, but MO doesn't see it that way, yet (or we would have seen a corresponding rollout of WiFi from Mobile operators - perhaps partnerships are in the offing? Ed. T-Mobile = Strong Buy?)
As VoIP starts to eat into MO's revenues, providing very cheap voice communications is going to be a prerequisite for MO. UMA allows them to do it, while still retaining the customer for GSM calls. All MO needs to do is create a blended rate for Licensed and Unlicensed access and they have a huge advantage over HO (Hotspot Operator).
The thing that I find a little galling about this is that the Licenses created this scenario, and now we are going to need regulation to open up access to MO and allow HO to compete in the market.
It's possible that people might still prefer to independently access HO and make calls etc, but we are still some distance away from making that a simple proposition for the average mobile user.
MO has a huge opportunity here to be the centre of attention in the new business model, but she's making so much cash singing the oldies, that she seems to be ignoring the new trends. Question is: Can MO sing Hot Spot? (this is getting lame, I'm not even going to write the obvious punchline!)

In the end, it may be Reg(ulation) that provides the final cut to MO. Et tu Brutè?

Google buggers

Those Google chappies are jolly smart! Om has been tracking their moves to create GoogleNet, and Kevin Werbach has also pointed out the implications in a typically insightful way.
I have long held the view (AMS internal technical newsletter 1999) that the creation of a (or several, competing) 'supernet' was inevitable, as companies start to care about where their customers are on the internet and how the content ('product') is getting to them.
The Google WiFi VPN client, combined with the GoogleNet backbone is a stroke of genius, however, and it puts Google right there in the middle, between the companies and their customers.
Various comments have been made about how the VPN client actually appears to improve speed rather than degrade it. This is exactly what I would expect for services that are highly popular. You can get to Heathrow from Stansted by driving through London, but generally it's best to take the M25 (especially if the M25 is a 24 lane mega-highway!).
Google is creating demand-led route optimisation, and the WiFi client is the hook that gives access to the super-highway. Want to connect your town or business to the superhighway? It'll cost you...

Death of a salesman

What do you want from a salesperson in your organisation? Works long hours? Always friendly, has good relations with your clients? Spends heavily on entertaining? Can answer all the questions the client has?
Nice, but sales is about CLOSURE! If you can't close the sale, then it sucks up all the time/resources in your organisation and prevents you from going for the next sale.
Now here's the thing...what I would like to see is Ebay's closure rate
How many auctions, how many closures?
This, to me, is the major area that Ebay could improve on. Let the seller cut through the endless questions and waiting for auction deadlines and go for a quick closure.
Surely that's why the 'Buy it now' model emerged?
Skype helps here (and is unique - for now - among VoIP tools) because it allows conference calls, which would allow transactions to be quickly resolved once the parties involved are quorate (presence in sufficient numbers).
Pay per call might be Ebay's idea of good use of Skype, but it's not helping the sale, not increasing turnover (how many calls compare with the sale of a $100 item in terms of ebay revenue?). If they decreased the commission charge to the seller by the amount earned from Pay per call, that might avoid the bad feeling bound to be generated by this.

It might also put some of the fun back into Ebay

Port blocking and Restraint of Trade

I posted my retrospective on Port Blocking and Restraint of Trade a couple of days ago, and the subject appears to be gaining traction as an issue in the blogosphere (though my stats and lack of comments, plus the complete bafflement of people I know who did read it would suggest that it has little to do with my piece!).
Andy Abrahamson wrote this vitriolic challenge to the telcos that think they can control what we do with the 'dumb pipe' that we pay good money for.
The reason I wrote my previous ramble was because I see that government regulation and telco 'walled garden' approaches are increasingly out of place in the inter-connected world. You can't reasonably expect to control the spoken word, nor require that you can eavesdrop on a conversation (to protect against terrorism or whatever). Nor can a telco proscribe what kind of traffic you can or can't put down their dumb pipe.
China is trying to control the internet, other governments would like to, but need to take a more softly, softly approach to it. But is it controllable?
We are at the point where there is nearly always a way around it. Examples of Skype being used from the Himalayas or darkest africa, plus the value of commerce and business that is conducted over the web, renders governments individually impotent in the face of commercial pressures.
I believe the time has come. If people want a dumb pipe (and they do) then there is very little that regulation, or attempted port-blocking/service restriction can do about it. The market will move to somewhere that does provide the dumb pipe.

There's a hundred blogs that reiterate the 'stupid network' point, but Telepocalypse says it as clearly as anyone. The telcos have it all wrong, and unless they wake up and give their customers what they want, they're not going to have any customers!

Regulation, Licensing and the lash

Whilst browsing I came across a little known 12th century document transcription describing regulations on communications in the Duchy of Camberwick.

Know that by the mercy of God and the common counsel of the barons of the whole Duchy of Camberwick. I have been crowned Duke of said dukedom; and because the dukedom had been oppressed by unjust exactions, I, through fear of god and the love which I have toward you all, do hereby declare the following to be set into law:
As Duke I claim sovereignty over the tongues of men, and henceforth none shall use their tongues to speak save that I or sheriffs of the Duchy of Camberwick shall be capable of transcribing that which they speak of. This is to prevent foul knaves and other villains from plotting against your benevolent Duke or from planning misdeeds against the good, honest people of Camberwick.
Do persons wish to speak, they must henceforth construct a special house, or may use a speaking house constructed by others, in which to do so. This house must be accessible at all times by the Duke and his sheriffs, and tunnels must be dug, at the expense of the speakers, from the speaking house to the castle, for the purpose of conveying the sheriffs of the Duke in secret, that they may transcribe any matters being spoken of. Every Speaking House must be given the Dukes official seal before it can be used.
Should any speaker, even though it may be within the boundaries of the speaking house, attempt to speak in a foreign tongue with another speaker, they shall immediately have their tongues removed by the sheriff and the sherrifs shall have the right to search and examine all of their possessions for signs of insurrection. Should no signs of insurrection be found, trial by fire may be used to extract a confession of wrongdoing. Speaking of particular things, that are considered wasteful of time and serving no purpose, which shall henceforth be referred to as Go-sipping, shall be likely interpreted as speaking in code and both tongues of the persons partaking shall be immediately removed.
Any speakers, having built a speaking house, and granting access to others in return for gold or silver coin must pay a tax to the Duke.
Any person found speaking outside a speaking house will immediately forfeit their right to a tongue and it shall be removed forthwith.
Any non-tongue based communication must be performed in a separate house, specially designed for the purpose of that particular form of communication. All of these forms of communication must be explained, in detail, to the Duke and his sheriffs such that the design of the house can be created. The Duke may refuse the request to communicate due to the large monies and time involved in ensuring that the people of Camberwick can expect the same quality as is provided by the official Speaking Houses.
The Duke will also provide up to date information on events within Camberwick via the Town Crier system. Anyone listening to the Town Crier must pay a tax to the Duke for the priviledge. Any person who does not pay shall have their ears cut off and be rendered deaf by standing next to a cannon when discharging. Town Criers must be licensed by the Duke.
With these measures, the Duke is confident that the people of Camberwick will feel safe and secure, and be assured that the Duke will provide the facilities to allow use of new technologies such as script or ‘wryting’ and there are even plans for a ‘Prynting House’ where everyone in the house is able to see their own copy of the ‘wryting’. Combined with the Town Crier, it will be possible to organize events of many people in one Prynting House where people can have their own copies of ‘Ode to the Duke of Camberwick’ and other uplifting material. Taxes will of course be applied to all materials.

The world has moved on a bit since the 12th century, hasn't it??

The Duchy of Camberwick was incorporated into the Duchy of Newbury, after it became unsustainable (due to emigration), however the lessons were not learned and the Duchy of Newbury also ceased to exist after a protracted period of declining population.

Normal service resumes next post...

Edge Effects

Through a series of links through the blogosphere I came to an article on Lifeblog that explains in very clear terms something that has been bugging me for a number of years now.
The article describes the issue in terms of the difference between mobiles and laptops. That is a spurious argument, in my opinion, but the point is well made andit referred to mobile lifestyle rather than a device as such. Interfaces are very different depending on the purpose of our applications. The real 'clarifier' for me was to categorise the things we do into 'foreground' and 'background' tasks.

There is a tendency for people to want to combine every possible application (foreground and background) into a single device that they can carry around with them. The problem is, as far as I can see, that everyone wants their UI to be the central part.
Here's a few links to people visualising hubs for their particular application
- Fujitsu HDTV (via David)
- Nokia N91
- Motorola Rokr
- HP PDA/GSM

All very nice, but should all these cool devices have their own network access??
Now we have 'phones' like the Nokia N91 that have several modes of access, 3G, GSM, Wifi...what next, Flash-OFDM too? What networks do we use for what tasks? Foreground/Background? I'd like to tell my 'phone' to use WiFi when it's available for some background stuff, otherwise use 3G etc.
What I want is a router that I can stick in my pocket. It should be able to connect to all the networks and have configurable settings depending on my environment. It might reasonably be made by Cisco or Huawei and it will support a short range internal network. It should ensure that my foreground stuff happens without serious degradation from the background stuff (QoS on the edge!).

Let's look at what the usage on a mobile device would typically look like:


The pattern of usage for different applications will require different kinds of interface, and they can be developed better without having to worry about the network access part of the equation.
For some people with voice activated dialling and bluetooth headsets, this separation has already happened, they are the early adopters, eventually we will all have a router in our pocket.

Ebay/Skype - last word...

There's a lot to read around the web about the takeover, but most of it seems to support my opinion of the deal.

Ebay having a VoIP telephony service offers a lot of benefit, in terms of their upsell and making their transactions more realtime.
However, I haven't seen much support for why it should be Skype, i.e. why not Gizmo or Teleo? (how much did MS pay for that?)

This quote was on a post from the Guardian:
"If eBay really wanted some VoIP technology it could have bought it cheaper or built it itself," according to John Delaney, principal analyst at Ovum. "If it is not paying for VoIP technology what is it paying for? The brand and the number of registered users."

I am excited about what Ebay can achieve with fully integrated voice and IM communication along with enhanced presence and reputation.
But it didn't have to be Skype, ergo it didn't have to be $2.6 billion.

It's Official?!

Reuters just announced that the Ebay Skype deal is official at $2.6 billion.

Ok, so let's hope Ebay has some ideas for how it's going to use Skype that can justify the big price ticket.
They're banking on a lot of stickiness, or they needed to get to market very quickly. Either way, let's be optimistic and say that it could be the making of Skype or Ebay.

I look forward to being able to bid for SkypeOut minutes, and buy and sell stuff over Ebay directly via a call and a 'direct debit' of my PayPal account. Replacing the SkypeOut balance with the PayPal balance would be a nice development.

Seriously, though, Ebay has the potential to become THE way to do small scale commerce in the future. Many small firms already use Ebay as their 'shop window' and that will grow as the facilities (Payment mechanisms and Communication) expand.
I would say that Ebay's next acquisition shoud be a logistics company (UPS, Fedex, or UTi :-)

Exciting times ahead...

Does it make sense?

There's a huge amount of comment all over the blogosphere about Ebay buying Skype and what benefit it would bring.
I said earlier that Skype was over-priced, but under-valued, let me spell that out.
The big change in Web 2.0 compared to Web 1.0 is Community and the integration of lots of different applications into something much more useful than just one specific thing.
Several people get this and the challenge for the big companies is to enable you to do it. Robert Young did a guest post on Om that tells me I'm not the only person who sees the community as the driving force.
The key here is that the community has 'stickiness' or loyalty, that companies crave, but their attempts to create it alienate their users. It's somewhat like parenting, if you attempt to mandate what your kids can do, they will hate you for it, and/or find ways around it.
Allow communities to form in your 'primordial soup' and control the identity and presence (the soul?). The communities will evolve on their own and grow or die depending on their success or failure.
This is almost religious stuff here, and the creator (of the soup) is in a position of omnipresence (supervising the presence) - consider the ability to influence and guide the creation of whole communities and to be a trusted member of those communities. If you love your customers, set them free! They will come back to you.
There is perhaps another message from Christianity that could be used here: God gave man freewill and cast him out of the walled garden. (For Bill had told us not to partake of the fruit of the Google tree!?)

Ebay could be adding some ingredients to their primordial soup, and with Paypal and Skype it would be starting to be interesting.
Google on the other hand has more and appears more tuned in to the community aspect.

Skype has community, but lacks the vision to use/develop it, instead preferring to develop ringtones and 'funny' pictures.

Ok, this post has really started to ramble, I'll organise my thoughts and return later.
I can see synergy between Ebay and Skype (with PayPal), but it's not a sure winner and even $2 billion seems a lot to pay.

Skypebay or Bay of Skypes?

Earlier I was highly sceptical of the Ebay buys Skype rumours.
It's not that I don't thik Ebay could benefit from having an Integrated Communications Platform, it's just that they shouldn't have to pay $2-3 billion for it.
This blog does an excellent analysis
but it doesn't tell me why it's worth $2 billion.

My advice to Ebay would be to take all the ideas you had in deciding to acquire Skype (if you did?) and then set about implementing them through something much cheaper.

Skype is over-priced, but under-valued!

Bluephone, Korean style

Thought this was an interesting product, in light of the BT 'product' that apparently carries so much promise.
Clearly, it's not a hard thing to do and BT's millions invested in R&D will be seen to be excessive.

The BT thing never struck me as a particularly innovative service, or one I would be desperate to have.
I'd rather have a pint, or several!

We still have a long way to go in this sector...

More Skype rumours...

I just read this article claiming that Ebay and Skype are currently in talks for Ebay to acquire Skype for 2-3 billion USD.
Excuse me while I rein in my scepticism on this one. Perhaps they are talking, but Ebay should not have to pay anything like that valuation.
The whole Skype valuation thing reminds me of the 3G spectrum auctions. People are confusing the business opportunities and the market with a specific company (or in the case of 3G, they confused the promise of delivery of data services to mobile devices with a specific piece of spectrum).
Now we see the potential of an Integrated Communications Platform and Presence, with the most successful example of the genre.
What exactly is the barrier to entry in this market? Paying $2 billion is not going to guarantee Ebay anything, other than an application that works.
If Ebay gave me $2 billion, I'd give them something a lot better than Skype in 6 months, and I don't believe Skype has any great 'stickiness' for their claimed 50 million users...Yet.

The thing is, I also read this announcement from Skype, which will allow content providers to get revenue from the Skype ecosystem. This is long overdue (and I suggested/predicted it a while back) though there are few details so I suspect it has been rushed out there.
The potential of this is huge, and it will drive Skype to new levels of acceptance if my guess is right.

Theoretically, any content provider can develop a service and get Skypers to call a Skype ID which is charged at a premium rate. The partnerships with TellMe and Voxeo are a little vague and could be highly restrictive, in one interpretation of the announcement. I'll choose the more optimistic interpretation and assume that this is really open.

Some applications/content that immediately spring to mind are:
- Help desks and information sheets (similar to Fax-back)
- Music/video (e.g. independent artist transfers personalised MP3 on receipt of call or IM)
- Podcasts/vidcasts
- Sex lines (of course!)
- Lottery/competitions
- TV/Reality show style voting
- Information on item being sold (for ebay)
- The usual crap you get (ably listed on the Skype announcement!)

I'm sure I don't have to spell out the implications of this for the telecom and media industry!?

September 8th is a big day for Skype, it just grew up (or at least announced its intention to do so...)

Convergence is a dirty word?!

I usually give an involuntary sharp exhalation when hearing the word convergence in the telecom industry, however this announcement made me wake up a little.
This little piece of software allows the separation of service from connectivity, at least partially.
Essentially it does nothing more than Skype could do, but it integrates the mobile access into the picture and maintains presence information for routing an inward call to the user (over mobile or wifi network).
Thus I could have my voice service over whatever connectivity was available to the device.
If some forward-looking mobile operator picks up the significance of this, we could start to see this take off.
As I've said many times, it's the identity and presence of the customer that is of value, not the calls they make. If the customer can be on many different networks, who controls authenticaton? who manages presence? It just happens that they are charged for voice service now, in the future the money will be in presence.

I'm currently writing more on presence, but it's in draft and may be there for some time!

Busy little Skypers!

The new release of Skype came out a couple of days ago, as a beta, but of course I had to download it and see what was there.
The major new functionality seems to be the Call-forward, which is a very good thing, but somewhat vestigial. I can now forward to my mobile at Skype's extortionate Mobile rates of 0.205 Euro cents! I can't decide which calls or when they are forwarded, still, better than nothing (or Ipdrum!)
The other thing that is interesting is the Personalisation, and there is a very comprehensive site selling ringtones and pictures.
Now, looking at the Skype client, I was confused, as it appeared that in order to add a different picture, all I have to do is find the jpg on the web (under a creative commons) or something and then include it in the list of pictures in the Skype list. Same thing for Ringtones, just get the .wav file and add it in.
So obviously the Skype pictures (which, incidentally are like extremely tacky Powerpoint clipart!) must do something else; allow me access to some other dimension of personalisation? Animate themselves according to Skype status?
...Apparently not! I paid for one and downloaded it, and it appeared rather unspectacularly in the list of the other Skype icons that I don't use.

If Skype's business model is to make millions selling ringtones and pictures for their customers, then I'd wager a chunk that they won't!
Their demographic is early adopters, not a bunch of giggling adolescents (though some of the marketing and strategy coming out seems to point to them having that impression, e.g. their survey having the 'Thought it was cool' answer for each question).
The whole personalisation feauture (as it is currently) seems like wasted effort at a time when all effort should be directed towards taking Skype to one level beyond the competition. It is also a huge missed opportunity; where are the skins, font control, avatars?
With Google Talk arriving on the scene and Microsoft throwing the Teleo hat into the ring, Skype is a sitting target...and it appears rooted to the spot! No amount of hand waving and cries of 'Shoo, shoo' are going to scare G and M, so come on Skype, pull the finger out and develop some more innovative features, we know you can (could)!

A friend of mine told me that there are 3 types of people in companies, Donkey Farmers, Donkeys and Shit-shovellers. The idea is to have as many shit-shovellers as possible, and as few donkeys, but if you have to have donkeys, have some farmers that can control them. Donkeys just create shit, and hire other donkeys. Skype seems to be light on shit-shovellers!

CORRECTION: It appears that Call-forwarding rules can be implemented through the API, on reading the developer blog. Just emphasises how little development resource they have, that it is only in the API, not the UI!